The newest wrinkle that has been added to many Fantasy Football leagues is playing with Individual Defensive Players, instead of Team Defenses.  This brings a whole new aspect to playing and drafting for the game.  The main league that I play in has been playing IDPs for four seasons now, and I’ve come up with a few strategies to help out someone who is playing this format for the first time.

• Be Flexible.  You will find that many defensive stars will come out of nowhere.  I guarantee you no one drafted Bart Scott, Nnamdi Asomugha, DeMeco Ryans, or Aaron Kampman, but they were all great contributors and points scorers last season.  Now I’m not saying grab the guy who does well each week, but if you see someone start to have two or three good weeks, give him an add.

·        Safeties and Middle Linebackers are the guys you want to focus on, and stay away from defensive tackles.  DTs are basically there to take up blockers for the skill players to make tackles.  They are nearly worthless when it comes to fantasy.    It is great when you pick up interceptions and sacks, but unless you have the top guys in those categories, you will have many weeks where you have low points.  With few exceptions, the league leaders in interceptions change from year to year.  Most defensive ends only get about 30-45 tackles, and cornerbacks a little more than that.  Sure, you might get 10 sacks, but you will have a bunch of weeks with 2 tackles, and that’s it.  Focus on the guys who will get you 10 tackles each week consistently, and then mix in some sacks and/or picks.  Middle linebackers usually roam around and are great at stopping the run, blitzing every so often, and covering tight ends.  They are the best guys to have.  Safeties are there

·        Bad Teams = Lots of time for the defense to be on the field.  Most of the time you don’t want that shut down corner on a great team.  Why?  Because the other team never throws the ball that way.  And if there’s no interception, you’ve got crappy fantasy points.  The worst teams often have their defenses on the field the most amount of the time, thus many opportunities to score you points.

Next I will have a listing of players by position (defensive line, linebackers, defensive backs) that are the guys you should be targeting on draft day.    

Wow!  Now this is an important read!  Since most of us wait until the last round to pick our kickers, it’s not like he will decide the championship, but there are subtle differences between great kickers.

Nate Kaeding, SD.  He was perfect on his 58 PATs (now that’s a lot!), and only missed three FG attempts.  He’s the kicker for a great offense, and LaDanian Tomlinson won’t score 100 TDs again this year, thus more chances for Kaeding to go for three.

Jeff Wilkins, STL.  The offense still knows how to put up a ton of points, and with Wilkins you get 8 games indoors.  He isn’t perfect on the field goal attempts, but he tries a lot, so he will score a bunch of points for you.

Adam Vinatieri, IND.  Peyton Manning and the boys don’t settle for three very often, so although he is great, Vinatieri might have less field goal attempts than other kickers.  But Vinatieri is usually money when he steps out on the field.  He’s another guy that gets 8 games under a dome, but with his history, does it matter?

Jason Elam, DEN.  He is the Mr. Consistency of kickers.  Elam turned 37 earlier this year, but hasn’t shown signs of slowing down.  He missed only two field goal attempts last year, and was perfect on PATs.   With the progression of Jay Cutler and Travis Henry, the offense should be able to move the ball, thus PATs and FG attempts for Elam.  The only downside is the cold and snow in Denver in the late months, but the thin air at Mile High also helps the ball carry.  Elam has been kicking for Denver so long, the elements are almost a non factor to him now.

Shayne Graham, CIN.  Graham had a bit of an off year for him, missing five FG attempts (although two were over 50 yards), and two PATs (including one that would’ve put Cincinnati in the playoffs).  However, he’s been an accurate kicker on a team that puts up a ton of points.  Carson Palmer and the Bengals “O” finds the endzone a lot (42 PAT attempts in ‘06), but Graham still had over 30 FG attempts last year, making him a great fantasy pick.

 Make or Break Year — Robbie Gould, CHI.  Gould led the league in made field goals last year, and also was perfect on his whopping 47 PATs.  However, when you get a kicker that comes out of nowhere to have a good season, I’m always skeptical that they will continue their success the next year.  Put that together with the fact that their offense is incredibly inconsistent (thanks Rex Grossman), and I would steer clear of Robbie Gould if I was picking a kicker after only five or six are off the board.

Rising Star — Steven Gostkowski, NE.  Although he struggled early, Gostkowski showed that he had what it took to fill the enormous shoes of Adam Vinatieri in New England.  He had a little trouble making FGs in the beginning of the season, but had a good last 8 games, and was 8 for 8 in the playoffs, where Vinatieri made his name.  You can pick Gostkowski and feel like you have a secure option who should score 100 points behind the revamped Patriots offense.

Falling Stock — Neil Rackers, ARI.  Like I said earlier, I’m skeptical when a kicker for an OK offensive team breaks out and has a great season.  Rackers kicked an outstanding 40 FGs in ‘05 and was a huge fantasy scorer that season.  And although his PATs went from 20 to 32, he dropped 24 points because the Arizona offense struggled mightily in 2006, and Rackers was able to convert just 28 of 27 FGs in 2006.  Find a more consistent option when you are picking your kicker.  Although he hasn’t missed a PAT in three seasons, I expect Rackers to struggle again in ‘07.

Bounce Back Year — David Akers, PHI. Akers had a torn hamstring in 2005, which we could all actually watch tear on a game winning FG that season, and has struggled ever since.  However, before that terrible injury, Akers was one of the more reliable (and my favorite) fantasy kicking options.  Two years removed from the hamstring injury I fully expect Akers and the Philly offense to get back to the prominence they once had.

Antonio Gates, SD.  This is the one tight end that deserves to be drafted anywhere near wide receivers.  Gates has been the best tight end in fantasy football the last three seasons.  Gates has averaged 80 catches, over 1,000 yards, and 11 TDs over that span.  He will probably be drafted somewhere between rounds 3 and 5 in your draft.  I can understand the 5th round, but if someone is willing to go round 3, then you have to be ok with that.  I know that you have to draft a TE, but the gap between Gates and the rest of the crowd doesn’t warrant such a high draft pick as it did in years past.  Gates didn’t seem to have the same relationship with new QB Phillip Rivers as he did with Drew Brees, but based on the receiving corps in San Diego, Rivers would do himself well to find Gates more often.  He’s still the best, but the field is closing in.

Jeremy Shockey, NYG.  Shockey owners wish that there were fantasy points for showboating, excessive celebration, complaining about not getting the ball enough, and calling out teammates in the media.  Luckily for his owners, however, mixed in with all of that baggage is an explosive receiving option at tight end.  Shockey seems to have formed a pretty good relationship with struggling QB Eli Manning, and Manning seems to look Shockey’s way when he is in trouble.  Eli also tends to look his way in the red zone as only two TEs scored more times than Shockey in 2006.  He does tend to get nicked up during the season, but has only missed one game in each of the previous three seasons, although he shows up on the injury report a lot.  As Eli continues to progress and mature, I expect an upward swing in the numbers of the Giants big tight end.

Tony Gonzalez, KC.   Tony G is really starting to get up there in age (he will turn 32 in February), but as long as the Chiefs refuse to go out and get one legitimate receiver he will remain a great fantasy option.  Gonzalez numbers continued their downward spiral in 2006, but it was at a much slower rate than previous years.   For years, Gonzalez and Trent Green had a great “you throw it, I’ll catch it” kind of relationship.  Now with Green off to Miami, Tony has to start over with the new QB in KC.    Even with all of these negative factors in the mix, Gonzalez remains one of the top TE options in 2007.

Todd Heap, BAL.  For years, Todd Heap was held back by two things, his inability to stay healthy, and Kyle Boller.  For the life of me, I can’t tell you why the Ravens stuck with Boller behind center for so long.  He is terrible.  And for a while Heap was stuck at just average production.  Finally, the Ravens sucked it up and scooped up Steve McNair so that they could have something that resembled a passing game.  For the last two seasons, Heap has played all 16 games and had good fantasy production.  He has averaged 74 catches, 850 yards, and 6.5 TDs.   Baltimore still isn’t loaded with great WRs so Heap remains a target that is used often, especially around the end zone.  Look for him to have his best year yet, 85 catches, 900 yards, and 8 TDs.

Alge Crumpler, ATL.  Allow me to introduce you to the only man that Michael Vick is able to throw a pass to.  People are always giving Vick a pass, saying that his receiving corps is below average.  That could be because their QB can’t put a throw anywhere near their general area.  But he can always find Crumpler.  But when you are 6′2″, 262 lbs it is hard to be lost.  Crumpler is quite the athlete for a man that size.  He will never outrun the defense down the sideline, but he is great at finding holes in the zone, and then is a load to take down once he has the ball.  Expect him to hover around the 55-60 catch, 800 yard, 6-7 TD range and you’ve got yourself a decent option once the elite are off the board.

Make or Break Year — Randy McMichael, STL.  In 2004, McMichael had 73 catches and nearly 800 yards and had turned himself into a top 5 fantasy option.  Just two years later the Dolphins decided that he was not part of their plans and released their once star tight end.  McMichael has a little problem dropping passes, and is in love with himself more than he should be.  The Rams brought him in to fill their tight end position, a position that hasn’t been featured much in their offense in a while.  McMichael needs to have a better year for the Rams this year than his previous two for the Dolphins or he will find himself out of favor in the fantasy game.  However, a big season could place him back in the top 10 at the position.

Rising Star — Vernon Davis, SF, Benjamin Watson, NE.  Couldn’t decide between the two guys that I feel will be the next two fantasy tight end stars.  Davis is just a freak of nature.   6′3″, 253 lbs. and ran a 4.3 40 yd dash his rookie season.  Put that crazy speed and monster build together with great hands, and you’ve got the recipe for the next big thing.  If Davis can avoid the misfortune of a serious injury again this season, he has a chance to crack the top 5.  Watson also has great size, speed, and hands and has one of the more memorable plays in my football watching career.  In the 2006 playoffs, Champ Bailey stepped in front of a Tom Brady pass and looked like he was going to score a 95+ yd return.  But just as Bailey was about to stretch the ball into the end zone, Watson appeared almost out of nowhere to knock the ball loose and knock Bailey out of bounds at the 1-yard line.  That was a tight end running down one of the best defenders in the game, 95 yards down the field!!!!  If that doesn’t tell you something about the potential that Watson has (speed  and determination), than you need to be hit with a hammer.  Watson’s main competition for playing time, Daniel Graham, left town for Denver, so the majority of playing time should go to Watson.  If you don’t get one of the top tight ends, or feel like gambling in the later rounds, Davis and Watson could yield very high rewards.

Falling Stock — Tony Gonzalez, KC.  I know, it’s cheesy to use the same guy twice in one list, but no category fits better than “Falling Stock” and Tony Gonzalez.  If you really look at Gonzalez career statistics, outside of maybe three years, they really aren’t all that impressive.  It was just that there were no other tight ends that really scored any fantasy points, and that made Tony G look like a superstar.  Don’t get me wrong, he was great for KC, but that doesn’t always translate to fantasy points.  His catches and yards have fallen 3 straight years and only has 7 TDs in the last two seasons.  Put that together with the fact that you have no idea who his QB will be (and there aren’t any good options for that anyway), and I would probably let someone else draft Gonzalez this year.

Bounce Back Year — Jason Witten, DAL.  Ok, so he needs to bounce back after two sub par seasons, but my choice was either Witten or Gates, and I didn’t want two duplicates.  Witten was another tight end that found himself as one of the best free agent pickups two years ago.  He neared 90 catches and 1,000 yards, and fantasy owners thought they had found the next great reliable tight end.  The last two years, Witten has only average 65 catches and 750 yards.  The worst part is that in 2006 he only found paydirt once!  Where had all of that production gone???  One answer is Drew Bledsoe.  Quarterbacks that tend to be statues in the pocket will lean on their tight end as their safety valve.  Well, Tony Romo will never be confused with Vince Young (besides the obvious) on his feet, but he can’t be considered stationary either.  The ‘Boys have also gotten some more production out of the WR position since Terrell Owens came to town. Finally, Parcells was using Marion Barber III in the red zone almost exclusively, taking scoring chances away from Witten.   I look for a pretty good year out of Witten in 2007.  Expect 70-75 catches, 900 yards, and 6 TDs.

Marvin Harrison, IND. If you are playing a keeper league, these standings might change a little, but for a year to year league it is still very tough to top Harrison. The guy is just a flat out professional. He runs routes with precision, has baby soft hands, and has a way of finding the end zone. And oh yeah, his quarterback is pretty good too. Marvin has had over 1,100 yards and 10 TDs for an astounding 8 straight seasons, how’s that for consistency? The emergence of Reggie Wayne has made it so Harrison doesn’t see as much attention from the defense as he used to as well. You can call him vanilla, but also be sure to call him the first receiver off the board on your draft day.

Torry Holt, STL. When new coach Scott Linehan came to the Rams and vowed to run a balanced offense, Holt probably fell down your board a little. But Torry proved in ’06 that when you are great, it doesn’t matter what the system is. Holt hasn’t been under 1,100 yards since his rookie year, and reached 10 TDs for the third time in four seasons. Holt is another guy that runs great routes, but he also still has the speed to catch the home run ball as well. The Rams lost Kevin Curtis, but brought in the underrated Drew Bennett to play opposite Holt and be another weapon that the defense must keep an eye on. They might not be “The Greatest Show on Turf” anymore, but the Rams still run an explosive offense, and Holt is the first receiver that QB Marc Bulger looks for. Those who like the glamour might pick other WRs before Holt, but if you pick him, you can pretty much write him in for 95-100 catches, 1,250 yards, and 10 TDs. Not too shabby.

Chad Johnson, CIN. “Ocho Cinco” grabbed the attention of the NFL world (and the disciplinary committee) with his wild TD celebrations again last season. Unfortunately for his owners, about half of Chad’s production came within 5 of the 16 games last year. In five games last year, “85” had 765 yards and 5 TDs. In five other games, he failed to reach 50 yards. The Cincinnati offense has many weapons for QB Carson Palmer to choose from, especially with the breakout of T.J. Housmandzadeh last season. However, Palmer still knows where his bread is buttered. Johnson has been over 1,250 yards the last four season, and you can almost guarantee he will be there again in ’07. However, he doesn’t quite find the end zone as much as the top two guys on this list, as he has reached double digits in scores only once in his career. There are slightly more consistent options on the board in front of Johnson, but you can do much worse than Chad. Plus, which WR keeps you the most entertained?

Steve Smith, CAR. Steve Smith came on to the fantasy radar back in 2003. His 88 catches and 1,110 yards signaled to fantasy players that this was a guy you wanted to have the following season. And then in Week 1, disaster struck. Smith ripped up his knee the first game and missed the entire season. Many were scared off given that Smith relied on his speed. But ever since he came back from that injury, there isn’t a cornerback that can cover this guy. He is one of the best at turning a 8-yard crossing route into a 89 yard TD. Smith’s speed is his greatest asset (well, it certainly isn’t his height), and if the Panthers can get some decent play out of the QB position, expect Smith to be back well over 100 catches and 13-15 TDs. He still doesn’t have much help from the rest of his offense to grab some attention away from him. Although John Fox is hoping that rookie Dwayne Jarrett turns out to be more explosive than Keyshawn Johnson.

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI. In just his third season in the NFL, Fitzgerald has shown plenty of signs that he is the next great WR. After a sparkling season in ’05 where he caught over 100 passes and 1,400 yards, Fitzgerald suffered through a disappointing season which saw a quarterback change, and a wicked hamstring injury that cost him a quarter of the season. However, Larry finished the year strong with four TDs in his last five games to quiet any talk of a lingering injury. At just 24 years old, Fitzgerald is the guy all keeper league owners are after. With another year of experience for him, Anquan Boldin, and Matt Leinart playing together, Fitzgerald takes one step closer to elite fantasy status. Think ahead of your competition, and get Larry Fitzgerald.

Make or Break Year – Randy Moss, NE. Once a borderline first round fantasy draft pick, Moss (and his image) went in the toilet when he went to Oakland. The Raiders motto of “Just Win Baby” didn’t seem to apply for the two years that Moss was there. Mix that with the personality that admittedly takes plays off when things aren’t going his way, and the last two years of Randy Moss’ career were nothing short of a nightmare. After scoring 90 TDs in 7 seasons with Minnesota, Moss only managed 11 in the last two years. It also didn’t help that he had the trio of Aaron Brooks, Marques Tuiasosopo, and Andrew Walter throwing the ball (all while they were running for their lives, thanks O-line!) Moss finally escaped from Alcatraz (where his best moment was exclaiming “straight cash homey” when asked how he paid his NFL fines) and was traded to New England in the offseason (much to the disgust of Brett Favre). His new head coach Bill Belichick is known for not taking a lot of showboating and garbage from his players, and dressing like a hobo. So the question becomes, will Moss put aside his circus act and actually TRY again? Or will Moss’ weekly antics cause Belichick to be reaching for the Tums on a daily basis? I’ll bet Moss reforms for a chance to win the Super Bowl, but I’m not betting my house on it.

Rising Star – Braylon Edwards, CLE. A lot of hype surrounded Edwards when the Brownies made him the third pick in the draft back in 2005, and boy did he disappoint. He was limited to 10 games his first year, and a laughable 31 catches. Last season Edwards was able to play the whole year, but still wasn’t a star. He was able to double his catches (63) and his TDs (6). However, he still had five games where he caught only two passes, and reached the 100-yard mark only three times. If the Browns can get some sort of running game going, and some consistent play from the quarterback (hopefully, Brady Quinn), Edwards can continue his upswing in production and get near the 80 catch, 1,000 yard, 8-10 TD level.

Falling Stock – Hines Ward, PIT. For years in Pittsburgh, if the ball was in the air in the general area of Hines Ward, you could count on him coming down with it. The only problem recently, is that the ball doesn’t go in the air as much in Pittsburgh, and Ward has started having some injury problems. His numbers have dropped from an impressive 112 catches, 1300+ yards in 2002, down to a less than stellar 74 catches and 975 yards last season. Some of this can be attributed to the inconsistency of Ben Roethlisberger the last couple of years, but some of it is also that Ward is now 31 years old and starting to lose a step. Ward should no longer be the best receiver on your team, but there still should be a place on your roster for him. Let’s see if we are still saying that two years from now.

Bounce Back Year – Santana Moss, WAS. CHis first year in D.C. Moss was fantasy gold, catching 84 passes for almost 1,500 yards and scored nine times. And then came 2006. Santana’s statistics fell like President Bush’s approval rating. He caught 30 less passes, his yardage was cut in half, and he only caught 6 TDs. It seems like every other year, Moss is a fantasy stud. His ‘03 and ‘05 seasons were equally good, while his ‘04 and ‘06 statistics were ugly enough to scare young children. Which brings us to ‘07. Looks like a great season is in store for Moss, don’t let the inexperience of QB Jason Campbell scare you away. I expect him to be comfortable under center after only a few games. Expect 75-85 catches, 1,100-1,200 yards, and 10+TDs.

Second Half Promotions

Back to the Big Apple – It is being reported that Lastings Milledge will be rejoining the Mets Thursday when the second half of the season opens.  What a difference a year makes!  This time last year Milledge was the talk of the town, the subject of every other team’s desire in trade talks, and the buzz around Shea waiting for his arrival was as high since Doc Gooden came to Flushing.  Next thing you know Lastings is high-fiving some fans, makes a couple goofs in the field, hit.241, released a rap album, and now it seems that he has been cast off by the organization.  Is this a ploy for the Mets to showcase Milledge for a couple of weeks so they can ship him out of town?  Are the Mets hoping he plays well so he will bring them some sort of pitching help for the second half?  Or is he really back into the future plans of the organization, when it seemed not long ago that he was out of the picture (they did promote Carlos Gomez before Milledge).  Who knows, but with injuries to Moises Alou, Endy Chavez, and Carlos Gomez, the door has been opened for Milledge to recover the shine on his star, and prove to the Mets that he is the future of their outfield.

Welcome Back, Mr. Jones – Another top prospect who floundered last year when given the chance in the majors is returning to the show when the second half opens.  Adam Jones will be arriving in Seattle to be the energizer to the new Mariners’ outfield.  Jones will be manning right field, Ichiro remains in center, Jose Guillen will move to left, Raul Ibanez will now be the DH, and that leaves Jose Vidro on the bench.  As I wrote last week, Jones was tearing up AAA ball with a .309 average, 21 HRs, and 72 RBI in 81 games.  The Mariners are hoping that he provides some added offense to a team that is trying to maintain their surprisingly good season, and help them catch the Angels. 

Rejoining His Team – It looks like BJ Upton will be back in the Devil Rays’ lineup Thursday night when they play against the New York Yankees.  Upton hasn’t played since June 8^th when he suffered his strained quad, and then had a slight setback with a pulled hammy while on a rehab assignment.  However, it all looks to be a go on Thursday when he is supposed to be playing centerfield.  Upton was finally making the impact that we were all expecting for a number of years, so hopefully he will go right back to being a productive fantasy player once again.

Closing Time??? – Brad Lidge says he expects to claim his spot once more as the Astros closer when he returns on Friday.  While trying to recover from an oblique injury, Lidge suffered a minor right knee injury that slowed his recovery.  Will he take his job back from Dan Wheeler again?  Will he be effective again as the reinstated closer?  Can he stay on the field for more than a week this time?  Answers…..yes, probably, your guess is as good as mine!

Second half explosion – Mark Teixeira will be playing in one last rehab game tonight and then expects to be back on the field for the Rangers when they open the second half on Friday.  After having the longest consecutive games played streak by an active player, Teixeira has missed the last 28 games, due to a strained left quad.  Manager Ron Washington plans for Teixeira to play first base on Friday and Saturday, then be the designated hitter for the series finale that is a day game.  Teixeira has proven to be a second half monster the last few years, so fantasy owners that have him, plug him back into your lineup right away, and then sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.

1.  LaDanian Tomlinson, SD.  Let me start out by saying, if you expect LT to repeat his 33 touchdown season (don’t forget he threw for two as well), than you will be very disappointed with your pick.  Then again, if you have the number one pick, and you don’t pick Tomlinson, you need to go to get your head examined.  Tomlinson is one of the most exciting and efficient players in football.  He’s still just 28, and is the catalyst in one of the best offenses in the NFL.  Even when opposing defenses set their sights on him, they still can’t stop him.  Is he running, will he catch out of the backfield, split out wide, or will he throw the ball?  When you have options like that, how are you supposed to stop the man?  Pick Tomlinson number one, don’t even think twice about it, and enjoy the 22-26 TDs that comes with him.

2. Stephen Jackson, STL.  Allow me to introduce you to the man that will be causing defensive coordinators around the NFL to have nightmares for the next 10 seasons.  Jackson has it all, he’s got some speed, a bunch of power, can catch with the best RBs in the league (90 catches last year), and has a nose for the end zone (ten TDs in the last four weeks). At just 24 years old, and coming off of his first season as the legitimate number one back in St. Louis, Jackson is the guy who has a lot of miles left that keeper league players want to key in on.  With second year coach Scott Linehan committed to running a balanced offensive attack, Jackson looks to have the brightest future of any running back.

 3.  Larry Johnson, KC.  Just a few years removed from his coach Dick Vermeil telling him to “take his diaper off” Johnson turned himself into one of the elite backs in the NFL, (or was it the Chiefs O-line?) and a top 2 or 3 pick in all fantasy leagues.  Johnson has found the end zone 40 times in the last two seasons, second to only LaDanian Tomlinson.  However, he has also carried the ball more times than any other back.  It is nice to see that coach Herm Edwards believes that Johnson is the Man for his offense, but there is a point where a back can be used too much (Johnson carried an NFL record 416 times).  Expect another big season out of LJ, but don’t be surprised if he is either used a bit less, or if not, ends up on the injury report.

4.  Shaun Alexander, SEA.  A lot of experts have begun to write off Shaun Alexander from the ranks of the top fantasy backs.  It is possible that they are doing this too soon.  True, Alexander will hit that number that no running back likes to see, 30 years old, this October.  It is also true that Alexander’s average per carry dropped 1.5 yards last year, partly due to the fact that they lost Steve Hutchinson to Minnesota.  I am ready to take Alexander out of the elite RBs available, but I still believe he is a top 5 pick that will still find the end zone quite regularly this season.  It was not the kind of year that anyone in Seattle envisioned in 2006, but look for a 1,300 yard, 14-18 TD turnaround season for Alexander.

5.  Rudi Johnson, CIN.  Johnson is the cute girl that the jocks never want to ask out.  She isn’t the hottest, she isn’t the sexiest, but the guys who do ask her out find themselves happy, and find that she gets the job done.  She knows exactly how to…..wait a minute, lost my focus there for a second.  The last 3 years for Johnson have been the model of consistency.  He has gained between 1,309 and 1,458 yards, and has scored exactly 12 times each of the last three seasons.  He has left fantasy owners who used a first round pick on him very happy. Rudi will just turn 28 during the season, and still has three to five productive years left in him.  The only downside to Johnson is that he isn’t a big factor in the passing game.  Although the Bengals have a bunch of offensive weapons to choose from, owners can expect similar production again this year.

Make or Break Year –  Cadillac Williams, TB.  After the most explosive start to a career by a rookie RB (100 yards in each of his first three games), Cadillac has looked pretty pedestrian since then.  He may have hit rock bottom last year, falling short of 800 yards rushing, finding the end zone only once, while watching his yards per carry fall to a meager 3.5.  Bad news for fantasy owners is that the “Touchdown Stealer” Mike Alstott is returning again to vulture the goal line carries, making Cadillac’s hopes to eclipse his 6 scores from his rookie year unlikely.  Good news is that the Bucs made an effort to improve their offensive line, including signing former Giant Luke Petitgout.

Rising Star –  Brandon Jacobs, NYG.  With the retirement of Tiki Barber, it looks as though Brandon Jacobs will be the man in New York this year.  Yeah, they went out and signed Reuben Droughns, but that’s not something that would make me lose sleep if I were Jacobs.  Expect Jacobs to easily eclipse double digits in touchdowns this year, and likely run for over 1,000 yards.  Droughns will get some time in the Giants backfield, but with the Giants style of offense, there are enough carries to go around.  Expect Jacobs to handle the ball 20 times a game.

Falling Stock – DeShawn Foster, CAR.  Foster has two big problems heading into this season.  One is he can’t stay healthy Foster has never played a complete 16 game schedule in his entire career.  Just when it seems he is finally going to live up to his potential, an injury pops up.  His nickname should be “Q” because the guy is questionable every week.  The second, and probably more significant problem is the presence of DeAngelo Williams in the backfield.  I expect a big season from Williams if he is given the chance, which I believe will happen right out of preseason.  Even if Foster does win the starting job, it will most likely be just a few weeks before he shows up on the injury report.

Bounce Back Year – Clinton Portis, WAS.  Excuse me for not completely believing that Ladell Betts will significantly eat into Portis’ carries this year.  Didn’t the Redskins just trade All-World defender Champ Bailey for him?  Portis is incredibly explosive, can take any carry to the house, and does a decent job receiving out of the backfield.  Betts is a nice backup and all, but at nearly 28, if he was this good, don’t you think he would be starting somewhere?  You will be able to get a steal a few rounds later than you should, as Portis will probably drop a few more rounds than he should.  But be sure to be the guy to snatch him up, and you should be rewarded with a 1,400 yard 8-9 TD season.

1. Peyton Manning, IND. The undisputed leader of the pack for the last 5 years has now gotten that pesky “can’t win the big one” tag off his back with his Super Bowl victory in February. After his “off year” in 2005, Manning was back to his usual dominant self with another season of well over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Manning didn’t make a ton of mistakes either throwing just 9 interceptions in 16 games. To add to his impressive statistics from last year, Manning also ran for the end zone 4 times, and threw for over 300 yards 6 times. The only concern might be that he might take it easy after winning the big game last year, but from what we know of Peyton, it should only motivate him more. He’s still the best folks, worthy of a first round pick in all leagues, just after the elite running backs come off the board, somewhere between picks 5 and 7.

2. Carson Palmer, CIN. Palmer entered 2006 with a load of questions about his health. After that nasty knee injury suffered in the ‘’05 playoffs, fantasy players were scared off by the uncertainty of how he would perform. Well those owners with the sack to pick Palmer were greatly rewarded with a 4,000+ and 28 TD season. Palmer leads one of the more explosive offenses in football, with great weapons all around him. The loss of Chris Henry to suspension for the first half of the year is a slight setback, but Cincinnati has more than enough places for Palmer to throw the ball. I expect a slightly better season than last year for Carson, over 4,000 yards again and 30+ TDs. He is a late first round or second round pick.

3. Tom Brady, NE. Mr. Consistency had another solid season for the Patriots despite mediocre weapons around him. Brady threw for over 3,500 yards and 24 scores. The loss of Corey Dillon will be more than offset by the maturation of soon to be fantasy stud, Laurence Maroney. Not only that, but the Pats went out and got Brady a bunch of new toys to throw the ball to. They added Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth, and Wes Welker. This will be by far the best receiving core that Brady has ever had around him. Brady will throw for nearly 4,000 yards this year and approach 30 touchdowns. He should definitely be the third QB off the board, somewhere in the beginning of the third round.

4. Drew Brees, NO. The first season in New Orleans was a magical one for Brees and included a worst to first in the standings and a trip to the NFC title game. Head Coach Sean Payton installed a system where Brees was able to throw the ball all over the field. Brees had a career year with nearly 4,500 yards and 26 scores, as he led one of the more exciting teams in the NFC. Drew has a number of weapons around him, led by his RB tandem of Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, and a young, but talented group of receivers (Marques Colston, rookie Robert Meachem, David Patten, and Devery Henderson). Expect another exciting year down in the Bayou, and another productive year for Brees (3,600 yards, 28 TDs).

5. Marc Bulger, STL Bulger will be the best quarterback that gets the least amount of attention. The Rams haven’t been relevant in the standings the last 4-5 years and that has taken Bulger off the radar. However, don’t be the one to pass him by for a name you might know better. He has a trio of aging, but solid receivers (Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and new addition Drew Bennett), one of the best running backs in Stephen Jackson (who also caught 90 passes last year), and should be primed for another solid season of near 4,000 and 25-28 TDs.

Make or Break Year – Eli Manning, NYG. Last season was a disaster for the Giants, a .500 record, Tiki Barber announced his retirement early, there was fighting through the press, and Eli Manning’s struggles. At times he looked like the number one pick in the draft he was, at other times, he looked like he was lost out there. Sports talk radio hosts were having field days reminding fans that the Giants traded Philip Rivers, and draft picks that turned into superfreak Shawne Merriman, and kicker Nate Kaeding to acquire Manning, while the Chargers had the best record in the NFL. The first thing Eli has to improve on is the interceptions. He has thrown 35 in the last two seasons (32 games), and a number of them were at costly times during the game. In his defense, the Giants played some of the better defenses in the league (Carolina, Jacksonville, Chicago). Honestly, I think Manning’s biggest problem is that his last name is Manning. If you look at Peyton’s early career numbers, Eli isn’t far off. Unfortunately for Eli, Peyton is having his best seasons, while he is struggling in the biggest market in the world . He also has prima donna teammates who whine and cry (Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey), and take plays off if they don’t feel they are getting the ball enough. I still have plenty of faith in Eli, and would feel comfortable having him as my every week starter going into this season.

Rising Star – Matt Leinart, ARI. Given the talent that he has shown in his collegiate career, and the talent of skill players around him, I can’t believe that the future for Matt Leinart isn’t incredibly bright. I think he will be making the teams that passed on him in the draft very regretful. By staying in college, Leinart gave his critics more time to nitpick his slight flaws and focus on them. But don’t forget, that Leinart was the consensus #1 pick if he had come out the year before. Edgerrin James still has a few good years left in him, and Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are the best young receiving tandem in the NFL. If they could just find some good pieces to shore up the offensive line, the Cardinals could have an explosive offense. Grab Leinart late in your draft, and by the middle of your season he will have a good chance to be your weekly starter.

Falling Stock – Jake Delhomme, CAR. After leading his team to the Super Bowl just a couple years ago, Delhomme’s stats have started to suffer. In 2004 he threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. His numbers have fallen dramatically the last two years, and now the Panthers went and acquired David Carr as a kick in the butt to Delhomme. His offensive weapons (outside of Steve Smith), are decent at best. They are counting on rookie Dwayne Jarrett (whose draft stock plummeted) to come in and be their number 2 guy behind Smith, as Keary Colbert and Drew Carter really haven’t progressed. He might be a decent spot starter, but Delhomme’s time as a weekly starter is over.

Bounce Back Year – Donovan McNabb, PHI. Injuries will most likely scare a lot of fantasy players away from Donovan McNabb, and I understand that completely. When a guy has two season ending injuries in a row, that’s generally what happens. However, don’t forget what you will be getting if McNabb is able to stay healthy. He was one of the top 3 or 4 QBs in fantasy the years before his injury streak. He throws a good number of TDs (31 in 2004), and usually not a bunch of turnovers (8 INT in ’04). The Eagles brought in efficient Kevin Curtis to help anchor Philly’s no name receiving corps, and Brian Westbrook is an explosive player out of the backfield. I can’t say I expect McNabb to stay healthy all year, quarterbacks are getting hurt more now than ever, but if he is healthy, you can get an elite QB probably 3 to 4 rounds later than his value will be.

As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com.  I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

We are just about at the halfway point of the major league season, and so far many teams have called up their top prospects in order to pump some energy into their lineups. Some are flourishing (Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence) while others are wondering how this game has gotten to be so difficult (Alex Gordon, Carlos Quentin). With so many guys either called up, or given jobs to start this season, many fantasy players are wondering Who’s Next? Here are five guys that could have an impact in the second half of the season:

Jeff Niemann, SP, D-Rays. The next time that Edwin Jackson (or some other member of the patchwork Devil Rays rotation) blows up, you might be seeing Jeff Niemann. Niemann will be the least hyped prospect on this list, but most likely be the next one to come up. He is 9-5 with a 3.75 ERA for AAA Durham this year. The number that makes him a potentially viable fantasy player is his 93 K’s in 98 innings. He won’t carry your staff, but if you are starved for pitching and Niemann comes up, he is definitely worth a flier.

Rick Ankiel, RF, Cardinals. Remember me? I was the hot pitching prospect who threw a record number of wild pitches during the 2000 playoffs. Do you also remember that Ankiel was a pretty good hitting pitcher? Well, he’s now a right fielder and flourishing in AAA Memphis. If it weren’t for the fact that Ankiel is out of minor league options, he would be with the big club already. However, if they bring him to the Big Show, they can’t send him back down without him being exposed to waivers. In 74 games, he is hitting an OK .267, but is third in all of the Minor Leagues with 25 HRs and has driven in 64 runs, and has been swinging a powerful bat lately. He has five homers and ten RBI in his last 10 games. Look for him to reappear in St. Louis very soon.

Adam Jones, CF, Mariners. About a week ago, Jones was a phone call away from the Majors. In Seattle, Jose Guillen was hurting, and it looked like Raul Ibanez was going to the DL. The stage was set for Seattle’s top prospect to hit the Big League…….but then Ibanez and Guillen have played through their pain, and Jones is still stuck in Tacoma. But he is leaving a lasting impression on Pacific Coast League pitchers. Jones is currently hitting .308 with 19 HRs and 68 RBI, and for good measure he has stolen 5 bases. If one were to find a flaw, it would be with his 85 strikeouts in just 79 games. If Seattle has any injury in the outfield and Jones hits the Majors, I would grab him up.

Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox. The Red Sox were looking for a temporary injury replacement to Curt Schilling while he was injured. They were deciding between Kasson Gabbard, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz. Buccholz is probably their top pitching prospect, Lester is overdue to be called to the majors, so of course ,the Sox picked Gabbard. Buchholz is a hard throwing right hander that keeper league players need to know right now. If he is in your player pool, he is the kind of guy you pick up and sit on. This season Buchholz is 7-2 with a sparkling 1.77 ERA, and an eye popping 116 punchouts in just 86 innings. He might not make it to Boston this year until possibly September, he is still behind Lester, but if you see him coming, I would find a spot for him on my roster.

Justin Upton, OF, Diamondbacks. This is the guy that I was expecting to be the number one pick in all keeper leagues next year. However, with the horribly struggling Carlos Quentin sent back to the minors, it is a possibility that Upton might get the call to Arizona sometime in the second half. He was a shortstop converted to a center fielder, and has been playing right field (Quentin’s position) the last two weeks at Mobile. His minor league numbers won’t knock you over the head (.318/13 HRs/ 52 RBI/ 16 SB) but he is one of the most talented players to come along in a while. One last fact to have keeper league players salivating….he was born in 1987!!!

Do I have to tell you again???? I have been urging all of you since I began writing this blog to be sure that you have Ryan Braun on your team if he is available. How this kid could still be on the wire in any league is beyond me. With this 2 HRs tonight, his stats are now .342 10 HRs, 31 RBIS, and 8 steals. And, oh yeah, he’s only been in the major leagues 6 weeks. If he is available in your league, PLEASE go get him now. And if he is available, can I play in your league next year?

A Good Old Country Beating: Holy Lord the White Sox took a beating tonight in their doubleheader with the Twins. Hey, Sox, good news is you scored 14 runs in the first game, bad news is you still lost by 6. The Twins scored 32 runs on 36 hits today. Justin Morneau drove in 9 runs in the two games (including a 3 HR game in the nightcap), which now brings him to 23 HRs and 72 RBI. Still think he was a fluke MVP last year? Jon Garland had a VERY ugly line tonight: 3.1 IP, 11 hits, 11 runs, 3 walks, NO strikeouts. Can you say OUCH??? That will do a number on your team ERA right there. Hopefully for Manager Ozzie Guillen he will get a good start out of Mark Buehrle tomorrow, because he probably burned out his bullpen tonight pretty good.

More than just a long name: One of two things is happening with Jarrod Saltalamacchia and the Braves lately. Either they are trying to play him as much as possible to showcase him for a trade, or they need his bat badly enough that they are playing him nearly everyday at first or catcher to try to spark their offense. Either way, it’s time for those of you in keeper leagues to jump on Salty if he is available in your league. He is hitting over .315 and has now played 11 out of the last 13 days. Saltalamacchia doesn’t just have the longest name in this history of the MLB, he’s a stud prospect as well. Those in single season leagues, you should wait until it is a certainty that he will play every day.

Jo Jo is a go go: The Braves put their ace, John Smoltz on the 15 day DL and called up one of their better pitching prospects, Jo Jo Reyes. Reyes will make his MLB debut Saturday against the Padres. Reyes is a combined 10-1 this season with a 3.08 ERA and 2 more strikeouts than innings pitched. Now, I’m not saying go out and grab him right away, because from what I’m reading he’s probably getting 2 starts and then back to the farm, but keep your eye on this situation

The infirmary: Bill Hall was placed on the 15 day DL after suffering a high ankle sprain while trying to rob a home run from Ryan Doumit. The Brewers are crossing their fingers that it is much closer to 2 weeks rather than 6. If this breaks your team, you were never really in it in the first place. Troy Glaus will get the final games off before the break after fouling a pitch off his foot. This is looking like having the weekend off, and the All-Star break will be enough to heal this injury. That’s another injury that should be annoying, but not crippling to your fantasy team. John Smoltz was also placed on the DL with inflammation in his shoulder. Smoltz had a tentative plan to go to meet with Dr. Andrews, but apparently the trip was cancelled after an MRI showed no structural damage (whew!).

Streaky? Yeah, you could say that: Jack Cust is at it again. With his home run last night he now has 6 HRs and 16 RBI in his last 12 games. His average on June 14th was .218, it now sits at .288. If you can live through the month long stretch that Cust will have where you will get almost no performance, for the 2 weeks of Fantasy Studdom, than Cust is the guy for your team. Or, if you are savvy enough to pick him up and drop him quickly, based on his roller coaster of performance, than grab Cust. As for me, I cut him soon after his first barrage of power statistics, and have no plans for grabbing him in the future.

Kids throwing gems: It looks as though Tim Lincecum is back. After going through a stretch of 4 starts where he gave up 22 ER, he has had back to back shutout performances, including Sunday when he fanned 12 guys (with no walks!). Even more impressive was the 13 runs of support the Giants gave him (savor it Timmy, that won’t happen often!). I fell off the Lincecum bandwagon briefly, but I am back on now, and I vow it is to stay. See if his owner might be a little shaky on the young stud still, you might get a steal. Chad Billingsley also was dealing on Sunday. The Dodgers pitching prospect threw 7 shutout innings with 9 K’s and no walks. This was Billingsley’s first win as a starter, and the first time he survived the 5th inning. He has always been a highly touted prospect, but then again, so was Todd Van Poppel. I’m not sold on Billingsley just yet, but if you are starved for starting pitching, at least he has a tremendous chance to be special.

His name is Andrews, but we know him as Dr. Kevorkian: A.J. Burnett is going back on the DL (I know, I’m shocked too!). Although this time he is going to visit the man that no fantasy owner ever wants to see on a note by our players’ name. That’s right, Dr. James Andrews. Whenever you hear Dr. Andrews’ name, you can generally expect your player to be out a LONG time. Not sure what the diagnosis is with Burnett yet (he’s already had Tommy John Surgery), but if he’s going to Alabama to see Andrews, you better see who you can pick up if it’s the worst case scenario. More updates when information becomes available.

The three word phrase that fantasy owners hate!: It looks as though Chris Ray’s struggles in Baltimore may have brought on another phrase that we all hate. Say it with me now…..”Closer by Committee.” This leaves fantasy owners struggling to see which crappy reliever the team will give a chance to nail down games for the time being. It appears that Paul Shuey will get the first crack at trying to save games, but watch out for Dennys Baez when he comes off of the DL just after the break. He’s closed before (although not well), and I can see him taking over until Ray gets his head on straight. I don’t see this as Ray permanently losing his job, but like Brian Fuentes in Colorado, I agree he needs a break. He has 6 losses, and ERA over 5, and in his last ten appearances he has given up one or more earned run in 7 of them!!!! For a closer, that is the way you bring about a closer by committee. I would advise Ray owners to stand pat with their man unless you are set with saves. He had 33 saves last year, I just can’t see him completely losing it in one year (although look at Derrick Turnbow last year).

Her shirt said what???? From the NY Post today (the armpit of journalism) there is a picture of Cynthia Rodriguez (Mrs. A-Rod) sitting in the stands at Yankee Stadium with a shirt that said “F@%* You” across the back! There’s a picture of it http://www.nypost.com/seven/07022007/news/regionalnews/mrs__a_rod_is_a_bronx_f_bomber_regionalnews_dan_mangan_and_david_k__li.htm here. I know she must be going through some tough times, what with that busty blonde her husband has been parading around with, but that is just low class. Are you still wondering if A-Rod is going to opt out of his contract at the end of this season?????

As always your questions and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com.

Nick Adenhart, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim