Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez, John Maine, Orlando Hernandez, Mike Pelfrey

When you have Santana at the top, you automatically have a great pitching staff. He is the ace of the major leagues and is looking at a huge season, not only because he moves to the National League, but unlike the Twins, the Mets can actually score runs! Those two or three no decisions that come from his team’s inability to score will be wins in Flushing. Pedro, if healthy, has shown that he is still a very effective pitcher. Oliver Perez should take the next step towards dominant this year, if he could just cut down on those walks. Expect 16-18 wins for him. Maine had a stellar first half, and then fell back to earth after the All-Star Break. Orlando Hernandez might be 55 years old, but is still getting batters out, and if Mike Pelfrey ever figures it out, he’s got the stuff to be a extraordinary pitcher. The Mets’ are going to strike a lot of hitters out this year. The top four in their rotation are all guys who average nearly a strike out an inning. And as stated before, their offense is good enough, that even some days when the starters don’t bring their best stuff, they still might be able to win an 9-7 type of game.

Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsusaka, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Curt Schilling, Bartolo Colon

Beckett easily could have won the AL Cy Young Award last year, as he was the only pitcher to win 20 games. Outside of his first year in Boston, Josh has had a good consistent career, and is the ace of this staff and one of the first five pitchers off the board in most fantasy drafts. Matsusaka struggled last year in his first season in America, but he still won 15 games and fanned 200 guys. It was a year of transition for Dice, a new team, a new country, a new language, and a new 5-man rotation (instead of six in Japan). Considering all he had to handle, I’d say he did quite well. Jon Lester has been one of the more inspirational stories to come along in recent memories. One of the top pitching prospects for the Sox, he beat cancer and came back to pitch in the majors in 2007. Be a little wary of his 11-2 career record, he’s on a very good team and his ERA is over 4.50. Walking batters has been his biggest problem thus far, and if he can get that under control, expect him to win 10-13 games. Tim Wakefield may pitch until he is in his late 40s (not to mention keep Doug Mirabelli employed), and he has never been exciting, but he will eat up innings and win double digit games. Clay Buchholz is one of the more exciting prospects to come down the pipe in a while. He has dynamite stuff, and even threw a no-hitter in his second career start. With the injury to Curt Schilling, Buchholz will get his chance to prove he belongs right now. Curt Schilling will be missing at least the first half of the season, maybe more. If he’s able to come back, he will give the Sox a huge second half push. Boston brought in former Cy Young winner Colon to try to resurrect his career. He is basically insurance against injuries at this point, but could prove valuable if one of their starters is unable to go.

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Continuing the series of guys who will rise to superstardom, we present the pitchers who will exceed expectations, even after being successful in 2007. They will not be among the first group of pitchers taken, but they will perform similar to that group.

Justin Verlander—DET—It is hard to go too much farther up from where Verlander already has been. He was 11-2 in his only 20 starts in the minor leagues, and has now won 35 games in just two full major league seasons. However, this season, I expect two things to increase in Verlander’s game. 20 wins are well within his grasp. He has a potent offensive lineup, and his division promises multiple starts against the Royals, White Sox, and Twins, all who figure to struggle this season. You can expect his ERA to drop to the low end of the 3.00, and his strikeouts to finally get back to where they were while he was in the minors. If he is able to top 200 innings again this season, expect his strikeouts to top the 200 mark.

Oliver Perez—NYM—Remember 2004? That’s where Perez will be again this year, except for an increase in wins. Perez has always had electric stuff, and in his first full season with the Mets he showed some of what made him someone nobody wanted to face that season. The Mets are going to make up for last season’s horrendous collapse and capture the NL East title this year, and with the addition of Johan Santana, some of the pressure is off of Perez. It is safe to expect 17-20 wins, a 3.10 ERA, and 185-200 K’s.

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1. Francisco Rodriguez—LAA—“K-Rod” has been blowing hitters away since he came into the league, and last year was no exception. He has had 40+ saves for the last three seasons, while nearing 100 K’s in each of those years. His funky delivery makes you think he is either going to blow out his elbow, or take a come backer in the head. However, he has avoided both thus far. Although he is having contract extension issues with the team, I don’t see that as being a significant enough of a distraction to affect Rodriguez numbers. Anaheim will have one of the best records in the AL again this year, so expect another 40 saves for K-Rod in ’08.
2. J.J. Putz—SEA—Putz was sitting on three saves after the first month of the season, but then went on an incredible tear to finish the season with 40, bettering his impressive first year as the Mariners closer. Putz was nearly unhittable as he finished with a 1.38 ERA and microscopic .70 WHIP. I’m not sure where all this is coming from, as he was relatively unknown two seasons ago. The Mariners should compete, and Putz has put two good season together, so why not a third. Now, if he could just change that last name. click here for the rest!

1. Johan Santana—MIN—Since 2004, no one has been as dominating as Santana, as he won two Cy Young awards in that time. From ’04 to ’06 he averaged 18 wins, 230 innings, and almost 250 strikeouts to only 48 walks. He stumbled a bit last season (a season most other pitchers would take in a heartbeat), but between moving to the NL, and getting on a team that actually scores some runs, 2008 could be a HUGE year for Santana. It is possible for him to hit 20 wins for the second time in his career, and approaching 300 strikeouts is within reach. Only two concerns come with Johan. One is he has logged so many innings over the past four years, it is possible an injury could pop up. Second, the Mets have had a knack for getting great new players who seems to under perform once they hit Flushing. I don’t see either happening, Santana is a no brainer as the first pitcher off the board.
2. Jake Peavy—SD—Peavy won the pitcher’s triple crown last year, as he led the National League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. Peavy has a dominating fastball and a slider that often has some unhittable break on it. Being in San Diego is both a blessing and a curse. His home ballpark is very spacious, keeping many balls in the yard. The curse comes from the Padres offense. Many times Peavy will end up with a loss or no decision simply because the Pads couldn’t score. Peavy only gave up more than three runs five times last season as he mowed down NL hitters. His is just one year removed from a sub-.500 record and 4.00+ ERA season, however, I believe it was just a blip on his career. Although he usually doesn’t excel in the wins category, Peavy is superb in all others and should be the second pitcher taken.

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1. Matt Holliday—COL—After breaking out in 2006, many wondered if Holliday was for real, or just a one-year wonder. He left that discussion in the dust when he not only kept up his production, but improved. Holliday hit a robust .340 with 36 HRs and 137 RBI. He was well over 200 hits, well over 100 runs, and was a close second in the NL MVP voting. He’s not a speed demon, but he has had more than ten steals in each of the last three seasons. His splits at Coors Field showed some preference to playing at home, but he is going to play 81 games there again this year, so here’s to the thin air! At 28 years old, he is right in his prime, so expecting another .330/35/125 season is not unreasonable.
2. Carl Crawford—TB—A tough selection, but Crawford’s ability to help you in a few different ways gives him the number 2 ranking. He has hit over .300 for each of the last three years, topping out at .315 last season. I expect him to get very close to, or eclipse the 20 HR level this year as well. But Crawford’s number one weapon is his feet. Averaging over 50 steals since 2005, Carl has won the AL steals crown four out of the last five seasons. Tampa Bay actually has a few offensive players to complement Crawford now, so at age 26, I expect an increase in production.

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1. Alex Rodriguez—NYY—How did this guy have an MVP season, opt out of his contract, and then end up signing back with his original team for less money???? If you got points for common sense, A-Rod would go undrafted. If you got points for having a backbone, A-Rod would go undrafted. Lucky for him, and his owners, baseball is about statistics. Few people put up the numbers that Mr. Rodriguez does. After a sub par first few seasons in the Bronx, Rodriguez put up one of the more impressive regular seasons in recent memory. He is the consensus number one overall pick for this year, but I am figuring that he will be somewhere between where he started in New York, and his 2007 numbers. Look for .290/47/136 and another solid season in ’08.
2. David Wright—NYM—It has taken me a great deal of time to finally come around on the value of David Wright. I’m not sure exactly what I didn’t like about him for the last few years, but it’s now obvious to me that the guy is a stud. Maybe it’s the way his hits, runs, homers, steals, and average continue to rise. You can safely expect a .330/33/115/30 steal season from Wright as the Mets return to the post season.

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1. Hanley Ramirez—FLA—He has the potential to be the number one overall pick in your draft. Most people will side with A-Rod, but I don’t think he will have quite the same season again this year. Hanley is a beast in almost every category. 125 runs, 212 hits, nearly 30 HRs, 80+ RBI, 50+ steals, and a stellar .332 average. Add that all together with the fact that he plays shortstop and you have my first overall pick. If Josh Beckett wasn’t so dominating in the playoffs Red Sox fans would be moaning and groaning about that trade forever.
2. Jose Reyes—NYM—This was a close call making Reyes second over Rollins, but I’m assuming the second half of last year was a fluke. Reyes has the green light every time he is on base, and it showed (ML best 78 SBs). Some people attributed his massive steal total to fatigue that caused his second half swoon. Figure this year he gets some of his power back and approaches 20 HRs again, and gets his average back around the .300 mark. Reyes can run like a jackrabbit and should be one of the first handful of picks in the draft

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1. Chase Utley—PHI—The class of the position without question. Even though he missed a month of the season, Utley was still magnificent. Not only a stellar .332 average but over 100 RBI and 22 taters. He is still a first round pick and possible MVP candidate if the Phillies contend again this year. Assuming he doesn’t get HBP in the hand again, look for Chase to hit .323/31/111 with 13 steals
2. Brandon Phillips—CIN—The gap on Utley is definitely closing thanks to Phillips. After an impressive turnaround season in ’06, Brandon completely broke out in ’07 with a staggering line (.288/30/94 with 32 steals) for a second sacker. The Indians are kicking themselves in their collective butts for giving up on this guy, and I fully expect another impressive year from Phillips. Possibly a downturn from last season, but only slight (.275/28/90/30).

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1. Ryan Howard—PHI—After being injured and struggling the first six weeks of ’07, Howard continued his assault on National League pitching. Although his average dropped 45 points, Howard still finished among the leaders in HRs and RBI. Howard’s one downfall is his horrendous eye at the plate. He set a new mark of swinging and missing with 199 strikeouts. Expect another monster season for Ryan, projecting .285, 53 HRs, and 140 RBI.

2. Albert Pujols—STL—There is only one reason that Albert isn’t the number one player on the board overall. There have been more reports that his elbow has become such a problem that he is unable to straighten his arm. To make it worse, Pujols has said that he isn’t going to push himself this year if the Cardinals aren’t in the race. Since that is a distinct possibility after the way they finished last year, you are taking a pretty good risk with Albert. I think he is still very worth it, but it had to at least affect his ranking. He will make many people sorry if he stays healthy, look for .330/46/145 if the elbow doesn’t bark too much.

3. Prince Fielder—MIL—One thing you can’t call Prince is late for dinner. One of the biggest men in baseball, he is also already one of the more feared young power hitters in the MLB. In just his second full season, Prince hit 50 HRs, and there’s no reason to believe that his power numbers will decline. He won’t kill you with his average and he even swipes a couple of bags a year. Don’t think he’s quite snuck into the first round yet, but another great year to the tune of .285/48/140 is well within his reach. Hell, I’ll even tack on 4 steals to that projection.

4. Mark Teixeira—ATL—Habitually known as a second half performer, Tex didn’t disappoint last year, as he hit more than half of his 30 HRs and 105 RBI after his trade to Atlanta at the deadline last season. Fantasy owners are hoping that THIS is the year that he finally puts it together for the entire season. Can he get back to his 2005 numbers (.301/43/144) now that he is in the inferior National League? I think he will be great again, but I can’t project 40 dingers. Figure on .278/36/110.

5. Justin Morneau—MIN—Morneau shockingly just got PAID by the Twins this off-season. Minnesota made the ’06 MVP $80 million richer, and now he has to earn this money. After a few years of inconsistency and injuries, Morneau has put it together the last couple of seasons. He struggled at the end of 2007, but looking at his line .271/31/111 it’s hard to complain too much. The Twins pitching staff is going to be a train wreck, so they are hoping Justin continues to hit baseballs into the baggie in right field. I’ll estimate his ’08 numbers at .285/32/105.

Rising Star—Billy Butler—KC–Butler left nothing to prove in the minor leagues, outside of whether or not he could field the ball. Even without a position, the Royals promoted him last year and after he left small children crying with his play in left field, Butler was relegated to DH duty. In September, it was figured he could do the least damage at first base, and he is slated to get first crack at taking the job. There’s no doubt about his bat though. A career .336 hitter in MiLB, Butler could become a force with the bat as soon as this year. He struggled some in his time in the majors, but once he gets comfortable expect a lot of baseballs to go splashing into the waterfalls at Kauffman Stadium

Falling Stock—Carlos Delgado—NYM–After ten straight seasons of swatting 30 or more home runs, age and injuries finally caught up to Delgado. Dontrelle Willis ended his season with a fastball to the hand, but Delgado was hobbled by shoulder, knee, and wrist injuries as well. A guy who you could once put in the bank for 30+ HRs and 110 RBI now comes with a lot of baggage and question marks at age 35. Maybe he should talk to Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds. This is the part of their careers where they started getting much, much better.

Make or Break Year—Travis Hafner—CLE–“Pronk” (part project, part donkey) really isn’t a first baseman, however, he played enough games at the position last year to qualify there in most fantasy leagues. After 3 straight years of improving numbers, yet nagging injuries, Hafner played in almost every game…….and his numbers took a dramatic turn for the worse. In 23 more games, he hit 18 less homers, 17 less RBI, and his average dropped over 40 points! The Indians front office, fans, and fantasy players are hoping for a big turn around from the big man this year, or has he taken a down turn? I’m thinking bounce back season from Hafner this year.

Risky Pick—Carlos Pena—TB–Bouncing to his fourth team in three years (wasn’t he in the Yanks minor leagues for a while?) it looked like Pena headed to Tampa Bay because no one pays attention down there anyway. Once the firstbaseman of the future in Detroit, I think everyone wrote Pena off as a bust. However, I’m guessing there was some sort of deal with the devil in ’07 as Pena had a season that I don’t think even his mother would have projected. 46 HRs and 121 RBI???? If you are expecting him to even come close to that again, don’t be too surprised if you are disappointed by his performance.

Top Prospect—Joey Votto—CIN–One of the jewels of the Reds farm system, Votto proved he belonged in his cup of coffee in the majors last September. In just 24 games, he hit .321 with four homers and 15 RBI. Votto looks to be a .300/25/95 guy right off the bat, and throw in 10-15 SBs, and you’ve got a guy who should be a star in this league for many years to come. Also deserving consideration—Daric Barton, OAK.

As always, your questions about your team (adds, drops, trades, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee an answer within 18 hours.

1. Russell Martin—LAD—20/20 catchers don’t grow on trees ya know. Ok, so he fell one homer short of that mark, but in just two seasons Martin has quickly ascended to the top of fantasy catcher rankings. Add a .300 average, a good BB/K ratio, and soon to be gold glove defense, and you can be sure that Martin will be behind the plate the majority of days for the Dodgers.
2. Victor Martinez—CLE—Victor had an incredible year at the plate, and an embarrassing one behind it. Martinez couldn’t throw out my 90-year old grandmother trying to steal second, but hey, in fantasy that really doesn’t matter. Cleveland has been experimenting with him at first, but I think they actually found a position that he is worse at defensively than catcher. Expect another solid season from Martinez (.285/25/95), just slightly below Martin.
3. Brian McCann—ATL—McCann had a roller coaster season, but looking at the back of the baseball card now, it was still pretty good. His numbers dropped across the board, but I don’t think his owners were complaining too much. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia shipped out of town, McCann is once again the Braves every day catcher. Expect him to hit for a decent average and lead all catchers in homers and RBI
4. Joe Mauer—MIN—I have never been on board with this guy. He has been dubbed the next big thing for a number of years now, and I just haven’t seen it yet. Maybe if he could stay healthy we could get a glimpse of the greatness, but that has yet to happen. Lucky for Mauer he plays a position filled with mediocrity, so he is still a good option, just don’t stretch for him.
5. Jorge Posada—NYY—the old timer had good timing to have a career year. On the last year of his contract, Posada hit .338 with 20 HRs and 90 RBI. Don’t be delusional and expect that again, but Jorge always puts up respectable numbers. There’s going to be a significant drop off in his numbers soon, possibly this year, so be careful expecting too much from Posada. He is 36 and needs a decent number of days off.

Rising Star—Jarrod Saltalamacchia—TEX—stuck behind Brian McCann in Atlanta, Salty finally got out from behind the roadblock and was traded to Texas last season. After it looked like they would move him to first, Salty will be the starting catcher in Arlington. After a roller coaster minor league career, Saltalamacchia is expected to be a dynamic offensive force in the majors. How long will he be behind the plate is anyone’s guess, but for the short term enjoy his time in the battery

Falling Stock— Kenji Johjima—SEA—After coming to the US expecting to be an All-Star caliber player Johjima has just been OK. Now in his third season here, he has yet to hit .300 or 20 HRs. Definitely a top 10 option at the position, Johjima has been disappointing. With Jeff Clement coming through the Mariners organization behind him, Kenji better put together a good year this season.

Make Or Break Year— Joe Mauer, MIN– Will he ever realize his potential, or will he start to sneak into that “bust” category. For years we have heard that his power is coming, he will mature into it, but he has less than 30 HRs in the last three years. Don’t hold your breath waiting for a 25 HR season. On top of that, is there any part of Mauer’s body that hasn’t bothered him in recent memory. His supporters will tell you when he is healthy he is the number one catcher. My question is, when will he EVER be healthy all season. It isn’t like catching is easy on your body.

Risky Pick—Jorge Posada—NYY—This pick is based on two factors, age and the 2007 season. Not too many backstops have great offensive years at the age of 36. Couple that with the fact that Posada had an incredible year last season, and his owners are bound to be disappointed with his performance in 2008.

Top Prospect—Geovany Soto—CHC—After an uneventful minor league career, Soto exploded in ’07 at AAA Iowa. He hit .353 with 26 HRs and 109 RBI on his way to the Pacific Coast League’s MVP Soto has almost no competition for the starting catching job in the Windy City. The only question, was ’07 a fluke? He did go .272/6/38 the year before. Also deserving consideration: JR Towles, HOU.

As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades, draft questions, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.